Virtual tie between Clinton and Trump in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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