NBC News published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, participants were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
NBC News poll results
The results show that 50.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 15 to August 21. A total of 1745 participants responded. There is a sampling error of +/-1.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 54.4% for Clinton and 45.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.3%. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the NBC News poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.7 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.