LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
LA Times poll results
The results show that former First Lady Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump have the same level of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from August 21 to August 27, among a random sample of 2460 participants. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they often contain large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 3.2 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% and Trump 46.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.7 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.