5 points lead for Trump in latest PPP (D) poll
By Results of a new national poll conducted by PPP (D) were spread. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 48.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 26 to August 28 with 881 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 47.3% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump. To compare: 52.2% was gained by Clinton in the PPP (D) poll on August 3, for Trump this number was only 47.8%.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.9%. This value is 5.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 6.5 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.
