Quinnipiac published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 51.0% of interviewees will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted between August 18 and August 24. The sample size was 1498 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 2.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote is 1.7 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.