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Clinton ahead, according to most recent PollyVote forecast


In today's update, Polly the parrot concludes that Clinton will end up with 53.7% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.3% for Trump.

A look at the components

There is broad consensus among the five available component methods: Four predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

Contrary to Polly's prediction, Trump has a lead in the econometric models of 50.8%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are index models with a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton. With a vote share of 58.6% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Trump lost 16.8 percentage point in the prediction markets compared to the previous week, no other component has shown a shift this large.

With 53.2% in aggregated polls the vote share for the Democrats is quite high when compared to previous election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, aggregated polls expected a vote share of 57.5% for Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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