Bio-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin
The Bio-index model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 59.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 40.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models may contain large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.5 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Bio-index index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 5.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Bio-index model.