Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Lockerbie model

The Lockerbie model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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