Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Lockerbie model
The Lockerbie model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lockerbie model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.