Results of a new national poll conducted by UPI/CVOTER were published. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
The results show that 50.0% of interviewees plan to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 21 to August 27 via Internet. A total of 1157 likely voters responded. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 48.5% for Clinton and 51.6% for Trump. To compare: 50.5% was gained by Clinton in the UPI/CVOTER poll on August 27, for Trump this number was only 49.5%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 46.8% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 4.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 5.3 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.