Monmouth published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 25 to August 28. A total of 689 respondents responded. The margin of error is +/-3.7 points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.2% for Trump. On June 20 Clinton obtained 54.4% in the Monmouth poll and Trump obtained only 45.6%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Monmouth poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.2 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.