Quinnipiac poll: Trump behind by 10 points
Results of a new national poll administered by Quinnipiac were distributed. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 51.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out between August 18 and August 24. The sample size was 1498 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they may contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Quinnipiac poll Clinton's poll average is 2.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.7 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.