Primary model: Trump is in the lead

The Primary model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, you should not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 50.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.

The Primary model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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