Results of a new poll administered by Quinnipiac were announced. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, 52.0% of participants will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between July 30 and August 7. The sample size was 815 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 55.3% for Clinton and 44.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.6%. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is negligible.