Pennsylvania: Clinton holds substantial lead in latest Franklin & Marshall poll
Results of a new poll administered by Franklin & Marshall were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Franklin & Marshall poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 38.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 29 to August 2, among a random sample of 389 likely voters. The error margin is +/-6.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they often incorporate large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 56.3% for Clinton and 43.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.6%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Franklin & Marshall poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the combined PollyVote is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.