Results of a new poll carried out by Susquehanna were published. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Susquehanna poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 4. A total of 772 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 54.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Susquehanna poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.