NBC-WSJ-Marist poll in Ohio: Clinton with 5 points lead
Results of a new poll conducted by NBC-WSJ-Marist were circulated. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically gained similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 3 to August 7. A total of 889 registered voters responded. The error margin is +/-3.3 points. This means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they can contain substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Clinton at 52.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.