Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGov were circulated. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, predictions here are of particular importance.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 17 to August 19. A total of 997 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they can include substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 52.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Ohio. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.