Reuters released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Reuters poll results
The results show that 42.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between August 20 and August 24. The sample size was 1049 participants. The sampling error is +/-3.5 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Reuters poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.9 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.