Leading indicators model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Leading indicators model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be regarded with caution, since they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points worse.

The Leading indicators model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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