Latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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