Latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.