Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single index model. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 54.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 3 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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