Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of a single index model. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton is currently at 54.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 3 percentage points better.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.