Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model forecasts that Clinton and Trump will each win 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% and Trump 46.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.