Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead
The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single index models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton is currently at 54.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.