Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead

The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 54.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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