Issue-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin

The Issue-index model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 56.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 43.8%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models often contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 54.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.

The Issue-index model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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