Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead
The Fiscal model model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 51.8%.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.8%. Relative to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.