Fair model: Trump is in the lead
The Fair model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.8%. In comparison to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points lower.
The Fair model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.