DeSart model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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