Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Time-for-change model

The Time-for-change model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 50.8% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Time-for-change model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points worse.

The Time-for-change model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 5.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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