The Keys to the White House model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be overly confident the results of a single index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, you should rely on combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton can currently count on 54.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.