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Clinton tied with Trump in new LA Times poll

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LA Times released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

LA Times poll results
44

Clinton

44

Trump

According to the results, both candidates have the same level of support, each with 44.0% of the vote.

The poll was carried out from August 21 to August 27 among 2460 participants. The error margin is +/-4.5 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump for the two-party vote share.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.2%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 3.2 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% and Trump 46.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.7 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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