Bloomberg published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Bloomberg poll results
The results show that 50.0% of respondents would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 5 to August 8 among 749 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Bloomberg poll Clinton's poll average is 0 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 0.5 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is negligible.