Latest Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat

The Electoral-cycle model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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