Latest Electoral-cycle model: Clinton and Trump in a dead heat
The Electoral-cycle model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.
The Electoral-cycle model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.