Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

As of today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will achieve 53.7% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 46.3% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the six available components: Five predict a win for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

According to the econometric models Trump is right now ahead by 50.8%.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are index models with a vote share of 54.1% for Clinton. With a vote share of 58.8% the prediction markets deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

When comparing predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is notably low with 54.1% in index models. Since 2008 John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, index models expected a vote share of 53.2% for Democratic candidate Barack Obama, in the end he reached 53.7%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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