Gravis released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Gravis poll results
The results show that 54.0% of respondents indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 15 to August 15 with 1143 respondents. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.2%. This value is 0.8 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.