538 (polls-plus) model: Trump trails by a small margin

The 538 (polls-plus) model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.8%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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