Latest Keys to the White House index model: Clinton and Trump in a tossup

The Keys to the White House model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.5% for Clinton, and 48.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points better.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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