Tossup between Trump and Clinton in latest Time-for-change model

The Time-for-change model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.8%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.

The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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