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Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new Lockerbie model


The Lockerbie model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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