Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new Lockerbie model
The Lockerbie model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 50.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 49.6%.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 49.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.2 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.