Morning Consult released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Morning Consult poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants intend to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from August 24 to August 26 among 2007 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-2.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 48.2% for Clinton and 51.8% for Trump. To compare: 53.7% was gained by Clinton in the Morning Consult poll on August 23, for Trump this result was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 47.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 4.8 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Morning Consult poll. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. This means that the combined PollyVote is 5.5 points below polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.