Hit enter after type your search item

Primary model shows Trump in the lead


The Primary model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 52.5%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they may include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 50.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

This div height required for enabling the sticky sidebar