PPP (D) poll in Pennsylvania: Clinton with 4 points lead
PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 29 to July 31, among a random sample of 1505 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. On August 28 Clinton obtained only 47.9% in the PPP (D) poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.6%. This value is 2.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 2.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.