PPP (D) poll in Pennsylvania: Clinton with 4 points lead

PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Of those who responded, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

This poll was conducted from July 29 to July 31, among a random sample of 1505 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump. On August 28 Clinton obtained only 47.9% in the PPP (D) poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.

Comparison to other polls

Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.6%. This value is 2.5 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 54.5% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that the PollyVote is 2.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.