New CBS News/YouGov poll in Ohio: Clinton with narrow advantage
Results of a new poll administered by CBS News/YouGov were published. The poll asked participants from Ohio for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the candidates of both major parties have often gained similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 17 to August 19 among 997 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump. To compare: Only 46.5% was obtained by Clinton in the CBS News/YouGov poll on August 28, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Ohio polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.2%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.