Tossup between Clinton and Trump in latest Lewis-Beck & Tien model
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.
The Lewis-Beck & Tien model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.