Leading indicators model shows Clinton in the lead

The Leading indicators model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.8 percentage points lower.

The Leading indicators model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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