Results of a new national poll carried out by Quinnipiac were spread. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 51.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 18 to August 24 via phone. A total of 1498 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 55.4% for Clinton and 44.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.4 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.7 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this deviation is negligible.