Economist released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Economist poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between August 19 and August 23. The sample size was 906 participants. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls. This value is 1.4 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Economist poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.0 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.