Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump

The Jérôme & Jérôme model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model forecasts that Clinton and Trump will each receive 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results vs. other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 49.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 0.9 percentage points better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.

The Jérôme & Jérôme model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.7% and Trump 46.3% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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