Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.1%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, one should rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.0%. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points higher.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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