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Issue-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin


The Issue-index model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 56.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 43.8%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models may contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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