Issue-index model: Trump trails by a clear margin
The Issue-index model enters the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 56.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 43.8%.
Putting the results in context
Single index models may contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 54.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.