Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead
The Fiscal model model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.8%. In comparison to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.3% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fiscal model model.